Price Guide Secrets, Exposed!
Finally, someone has put the real numbers on paper.
The Sydney Morning Herald has just revealed what every buyer already knows: the price guide and the final sale price are never the same thing.
The results? Sadly, not surprising to me—but it’s refreshing to finally see the data laid out in black and white.
Here are some suburb highlights:
Stanmore – 89% of properties sold above the price guide, on average by 16%
Alexandria – 78% sold above the guide, on average by 17%
Marrickville – 77% sold above the guide, on average by 17%
Redfern – 67% sold above the guide, on average by 14%
And that’s just the average.
A 36% Price Jump in Real Life
Last week, I watched a property sell for $3,125,000. The starting price guide? $2,300,000. That’s a 36% jump—plus an entirely different pool of buyers than the ones the price guide initially targeted. I know that is just on example, but it’s not an outlier.
Why This Is a Problem
The way price guides are used in Sydney is, frankly, a waste of everyone’s time.
Two years ago, I posted an Instagram story showing an auction where the price guide was $1.6m… and it passed in at $2.2m. I included the property address because it was public information and the facts spoke for themselves. The sales agent was not pleased. In fact, he only spoke to me once again after that - to tell me what he thought of me! Thankfully he has now left the area!
As a buyer’s agent, I walk a fine line here—pointing out the lack of transparency without damaging the relationships I rely on to get the best outcomes for my clients.
What Should Change
There absolutely should be controls to ensure auction reserves are tied in some way to the advertised price guide. If it sells above the reserve due to genuine competition—fine. That’s the market at work.
But owners who knowingly allow a guide far below their reserve waste everyone’s time (& buyer’s money on due diligence!). And it’s not just that—some agents never give a price guide at all, hiding behind “We’d like market feedback”. Or, worse, I’ve heard of agents retroactively adjusting price guides after the fact to make the final gap look smaller than it actually was.
Want to See the Data for Yourself?
SMH have done an excellent job compiling it:
Search by suburb → Click here
Search by real estate agency or council → Click here
Remember—these are averages. In reality, properties can and do sell for far more than these numbers.
If you want to cut through the noise and work with someone who knows the market, knows your limits, and can actually get you in front of the right properties—let’s talk.
