The 2 Things Everyone Misses When Trying to Time the Market
The market timing trap
I've noticed something shift in my clients' conversations over the last few months. Headlines about falling property prices are everywhere, and buyers are suddenly thinking, "Right, now's the time for me to buy." It feels logical. Prices are dropping, so the math should work out better. But here's what I'm seeing: most buyers who think this way are missing two critical pieces of the puzzle.
The first piece they're missing is this: you don't control your borrowing power.
When you decide you're ready to buy, you need to know exactly how much the bank is actually willing to lend you. This isn't something you control. Yes, you control what number you feel comfortable borrowing. But the maximum the bank will lend you? That's entirely dependent on two things: their risk appetite and the interest rate of the day.
Banks make lending decisions based on several factors. They look at the type of property they're willing to lend against. They consider their appetite for high LVR (loan-to-value ratio) loans, which fluctuates based on market conditions. And crucially, they assess your repayment capacity based on the current interest rate, your deposit, and your income. Every one of these moves around.
Here's the bit that catches buyers off guard: when interest rates change, your borrowing power changes with them. If you're sitting on the sidelines right now thinking you'll wait for prices to fall a bit further, but then interest rates go up (let's say at the RBA meeting in November), your borrowing capacity actually shrinks. That means you don't just need prices to fall by a little bit more. You need them to fall by significantly more just to get back to where you were.
You're at the mercy of bank lending policy and interest rate movements. That's not something you can control or predict with certainty. What you can control is being ready to act once you understand your genuine borrowing capacity.
The second piece they're missing is even more critical right now: finding a property you actually love.
This is where I see buyers really underestimating the current market. If you've been sitting on the sidelines thinking, "I'll wait a bit longer and let prices fall," you might also be thinking you'll have plenty of time to choose from multiple options. You won't.
I was talking to an auctioneer recently. He told me that in October, his business has as many auctions scheduled for the entire month as he had on a single Saturday in October last year. Let that sink in. That's how quiet the market is for his auctions specifically right now.
The only people motivated to sell in this market are those upgrading (willing to move in a downturning market) or those where circumstances dictate the sale (deceased estates, forced relocations, health reasons) rather than price expectations. That means good quality stock is thin on the ground.
What this means for you if you're thinking about 2026
If you've been telling yourself, "I want to buy before Christmas," you need to get real about something: you might find one property you love in the next few months. If you don't buy it, you might not get another chance in this market. No one truly knows how long current conditions will last. You can't see a market shift until it's already happened.
For most buyers, the real driver behind deciding to purchase isn't about market timing at all. It's about life circumstances: a growing family, a job relocation, finally having saved enough for a deposit. Those reasons matter far more than headlines about falling prices.
But if market sentiment is part of your thinking and you genuinely want to be a buyer before the end of the year, you need to get your ducks in a row right now. You need to know your borrowing capacity. You need to be ready to act decisively when you find a property that ticks your boxes. Because in this market, decisive action wins. Waiting and hoping another property comes along next week? That's a strategy that's likely to leave you on the sidelines well into 2026.
Ready to get your buying strategy sorted?
If you're genuinely thinking about buying before Christmas or next year, I'd love to have a conversation about where you stand and whether I can help. Reach out and let's talk about your situation: Book a call with me.
