Why Off-Market Listings Skyrocket in a Falling Market
If you've been searching for property lately and feeling like there's nothing out there, you're not imagining it. Stock feels thin on the ground, and it is. But the reason why might surprise you, and understanding it could completely change how you approach your search.
The sellers you're NOT seeing right now
In a falling market, the usual cast of sellers largely disappears.Investors are staying put. The recent federal budget changes grandfathered existing investment tax concessions, which means there is very little financial incentive for investors to sell. They're holding.Downsizers aren't moving either. Nobody sells a family home into a softening market to move somewhere smaller. They wait.So who is actually selling right now? Upgraders. Almost exclusively.And upgraders have a very specific problem that shapes everything about how they come to market.
The upgrader's dilemma
Think about what an upgrader is facing. They own a property they want to sell, and they want to buy something bigger or better. The challenge is the order of operations.Do they sell first and risk not finding something to buy in the same market? Or do they buy first and then carry two properties?Neither option feels clean, and that tension is exactly why so many upgraders are not listing publicly. Instead, about 90% of the upgraders I'm seeing right now are testing the market off market. They approach a local agent, put the word out quietly, and see what kind of price feedback they get, all without committing to a full campaign.The cost of a proper marketing campaign, signboards, Domain and realestate.com.au listings, photography and styling, typically runs to around $20,000. That's a real outlay to make before you've even found your next home. Going off market first lets upgraders test the water without that commitment.I have a client right now with a townhouse sitting completely off market. They want to upgrade to a house. They know they might sell for slightly less than they would have six months ago, but they've done the numbers and they're comfortable with it. Why? Because they'll save even more on the purchase. When you're upgrading in a falling market, the discount you get on the buy is larger in dollar terms than the discount you accept on the sell. The maths works in their favour, and they know it.
What this means for buyers
In a balanced Sydney market, roughly 30% of available stock sits off market at any given time. Right now, I'd estimate that figure is closer to 50%.
That means if you're searching only on the portals, you are looking at half the available market. Possibly less.
I'm currently working with a client searching for a two-bedroom apartment in Alexandria. In two weeks of active searching, we've uncovered 22 completely off-market opportunities. None of them are on Domain. None of them are on realestate.com.au. They simply don't exist to a buyer who isn't connected to the right agents.
This is the core challenge for buyers in this market. The stock is there. You just can't see it.
Why this is actually a brilliant time to buy
Here's the flip side of all of this, and it's important.
The buyers who are active right now are mostly first home buyers and upgraders. That's a relatively small, motivated pool. Competition at auction is lighter than it's been in years. Properties are passing in. Vendors are negotiating.
If you can access the off-market stock, you're potentially buying without any competition at all. No auction day nerves, no emotional bidding wars, no being outbid at the last second. Just a direct conversation between a motivated seller and a prepared buyer.
The properties are out there. The sellers want to transact. They're just not advertising it publicly because they're not ready to fully commit. That doesn't mean they won't sell to the right buyer at the right price.
This is the market where the prepared buyer wins. Not the one waiting for perfect conditions to show up on a listing website, but the one who is in the room before the campaign even starts.
Ready to find what isn't listed?
Off-market access is built on agent relationships, and that takes time and consistency to develop. It's one of the most tangible ways a buyer's agent adds value in a market like this one.
If you're currently searching and feeling like you're not seeing enough, there's a good chance you aren't. Book a free call with me here and let's talk about what's actually available in your target area right now.
