Hope Is Not a Property Strategy (And What to Do Instead)

Every week I speak with buyers who are certain the market will shift just enough in their favour to make their wishful budget work. I understand the optimism. But optimism without a plan is not a strategy, and in property, hope can cost you far more than a higher price.

The Erskineville Reality Check

This week I had a direct conversation with a buyer who wants to purchase a two-bedroom apartment in Erskineville with a maximum budget of $850,000. They had been in the market for a while, seen some price guides at that level, and read headlines about a softening market. They were hopeful.

Here's what I told them: in the last 12 months, not a single two-bedroom unit in Erskineville has sold for under $850,000. Not one. And this is during a period where the market has genuinely been soft for the last four months. If your strategy is to wait for the floor to fall out at that price point, you are waiting for something that, statistically, has not happened even in a soft market.

The Cheapest Property Is Not a Good Asset

There are apartments in Erskineville that sit at the lower end of the price range, and yes, there are price guides at $850,000 right now. But those properties are priced where they are for a reason, and that reason is usually significant strata issues.

If your entire plan is to buy the one property that sells at the cheapest price over a 12-month period, you need to ask yourself what you are actually buying. Because in most cases, it is not a quality asset. It is not something that will serve you financially over time. You are buying someone else's problem at a price that reflects exactly that. That is not a wealth-building strategy.

Price Guides and Sale Prices Are Not the Same Thing

This is one of the most common points of confusion I see with buyers right now, and it is understandable. You are browsing listings, you see a price guide, you find a comparable sale on a data site, and they look similar. So you assume they are equivalent.

They are not. Comparing a price guide to a sale price is like comparing a perfect nashi pear to a mashed-up banana. The only thing they have in common is they are in the same section of the supermarket. A price guide is set by an agent before a campaign begins, shaped by strategy, market conditions, and what they need to do to attract buyers through the door. A sale price is what actually happened when a real buyer and a real vendor reached an agreement on a real day. One is a starting point. The other is the outcome.

The Federal Budget Has Already Been Priced In

For buyers who were active earlier in 2025, something important has shifted. Price guides that were set before the federal budget came down had not yet factored in what has happened to the market over the last five weeks. The guides you are looking at right now have already adjusted for that softening.

So if you are looking at a current price guide and thinking you can put in an offer meaningfully below that guide and expect it to be accepted, you are likely to be disappointed. I am not saying it never happens. I am saying if that is your whole strategy, be prepared to still be searching six months from now while the market quietly moves in the other direction.

What a Real Strategy Looks Like

If you want to buy in this market, whether because of lifestyle reasons, a growing family, a work relocation, or because you want to take advantage of current conditions before they change, you need to do the actual work.

That means researching genuine comparable sales, not just browsing listings. It means knowing what you are genuinely willing to pay for a specific property based on its merits, its condition, and its strata health. And it means making an offer that gives the vendor a real reason to say yes.

This last point is one that many buyers underestimate. You are not the person who decides whether you buy a property. The vendor is. They are the only person who can agree to your price and your conditions, including your settlement timeline. If your offer does not work for them, the strength of your desire to own that property is completely irrelevant.

Hope is not a strategy. A clear budget, thorough research into comparable sales, and a realistic offer is.

Ready to Make a Move?

If you are a buyer in this market and you want someone in your corner who will give you an honest picture of what your budget can actually achieve, I'd love to chat.

Book a call here: https://calendly.com/purchasewithpenny/buyer